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1×2× 4×6× demand for data-center compute in the USA today = 1× 20222024 20262028 20302032 data-center compute demand ×3.4 per year (Epoch) what everyone else can grow grid peaks, approvals, workforce: a few percent a year the clocks of everyone else: resource plans every ~3 years · elections every 2–4 · permits and interconnection in years today: plans, permits, and billions get signed here keeps doubling · off this chart by 2029 Wall Street’s base case · Goldman: power +165% by 2030 stabilizes: efficiency breakthrough, saturating demand (an S-curve) IEA’s base case · it happened in 2010–18 (Science) paradigm shift: open models, edge, outsourcing the market’s tail: the DeepSeek day cost Nvidia $589B moving pieces: chips · models · apps · robots? · China Sources: Epoch AI · IEA, Energy & AI (2025) · LBNL (2024) · Grid Strategies (2024) · Goldman Sachs Research (2025) · Masanet et al., Science (2020)